Betting Lines
| Spread | COLO -6.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | COLO -188 GTWN +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COLO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COLO +23 | 169 | Won |
| Massey | COLO -6.8 (+16.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.1 (+32.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COLO -4.4 (+18.6) | 135.4 (+33.6) | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COLO -3.9 (+19.1) | 133.4 (+35.6) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COLO -4.7 (+18.3) | 134.2 (+34.8) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | COLO -4.7 (+18.3) | 134.3 (+34.7) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COLO | GTWN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-9 | 13-13 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 7-9 |
| Home | 11-1 | 7-6 |
| Away | 6-6 | 2-6 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.1 | 71.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.8 | 71.7 |
| Massey | 15.4 (#11) | 8.6 (#64) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.30 (#25) | 1.65 (#57) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.12 (#21) | 2.06 (#61) |
| RPI | 0.589 (#24) | 0.547 (#77) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COLO | GTWN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 40.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 21.7% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 17.8% |
Game Analysis
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