Betting Lines
| Spread | COLO -6.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | COLO -188 GTWN +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COLO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COLO +23 | 169 | Won |
| Massey | COLO -6.8 (+16.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.1 (+32.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COLO -6.8 (+16.2) | 132.9 (+36.1) | 78% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | COLO -5.6 (+17.4) | 134.0 (+35.0) | 73% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | COLO -6.6 (+16.4) | 135.5 (+33.5) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | COLO -7.0 (+16.0) | 134.8 (+34.2) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COLO | GTWN |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 6-2 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Massey | 15.4 (#11) | 8.6 (#64) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.30 (#25) | 1.65 (#57) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.12 (#21) | 2.06 (#61) |
| RPI | 0.589 (#24) | 0.547 (#77) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COLO | GTWN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 40.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 21.7% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 17.8% |
Game Analysis
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