And the only safe place to live is on an Indian reservation. "Ball of Confusion" - The Temptations
(3) Texas Longhorns
52 53
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(14) Abilene Christian Wildcats
Lucas Oil Stadium (Neutral) · March 21, 2021
Betting Lines
Spread TEX -8.5 Away covered
O/U 139.5 Under
Money TEX -400 / ACU +350
Model Predictions
Spread Total TEX win
Actual ACU +1 105 Lost
Massey TEX -5.4 (-6.4)
Massey Totals 134.5 (-29.5)
Bradley-Terry 91%
Weighted B-T 94%
Baseline Plus ML TEX -6.0 (-7.0) 137.7 (-32.7) 63%
Model 4 ML TEX -6.2 (-7.2) 132.9 (-27.9) 64%
Model 3 ML TEX -7.5 (-8.5) 136.4 (-31.4) 76%
Baseline ML TEX -6.8 (-7.8) 135.4 (-30.4) 59%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings TEX ACU
Overall 19-8 24-5
Conference 11-6 13-2
Home 8-5 13-0
Away 6-2 5-4
Neutral 5-1 6-1
Last 5 5-0 4-1
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 71.8 74.2
Avg Pts Against 65.8 61.6
Massey 14.0 (#22) 8.6 (#62)
Bradley-Terry 3.29 (#6) 0.96 (#98)
W. Bradley-Terry 4.04 (#6) 1.32 (#91)
RPI 0.611 (#12) 0.564 (#53)
Shooting & Four Factors TEX ACU
FG% 45.4% 46.0%
3PT% 35.6% 37.7%
REB / G 38.7 35.0
OREB / G 11.0 10.7
AST / TO 0.92 1.31
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.9% 52.9%
TOV% 20.2% 19.4%
ORB% 31.3% 30.6%
FT Rate 24.1% 23.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 46.7% 45.4%
Opp TOV% 17.8% 26.7%
DRB% 73.1% 72.1%
Opp FT Rate 25.0% 29.4%

Game Analysis

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