Betting Lines
| Spread | TEX -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | TEX -400 ACU +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TEX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ACU +1 | 105 | Lost |
| Massey | TEX -5.4 (-6.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.5 (-29.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TEX -5.2 (-6.2) | 136.1 (-31.1) | 69% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TEX -3.9 (-4.9) | 133.9 (-28.9) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TEX -4.1 (-5.1) | 137.6 (-32.6) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TEX -4.9 (-5.9) | 136.0 (-31.0) | 54% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TEX | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-8 | 24-5 |
| Conference | 11-6 | 13-2 |
| Home | 8-5 | 13-0 |
| Away | 6-2 | 5-4 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 6-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.8 | 61.6 |
| Massey | 14.0 (#22) | 8.6 (#62) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.29 (#6) | 0.96 (#98) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.04 (#6) | 1.32 (#91) |
| RPI | 0.611 (#12) | 0.564 (#53) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TEX | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 37.7% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 45.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 26.7% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 29.4% |
Game Analysis
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