The tide is high, but I'm holding on. "The Tide is High" - Blondie
(1) Michigan Wolverines
86 78
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(8) LSU Tigers
Lucas Oil Stadium (Neutral) · March 22, 2021
Betting Lines
Spread MICH -4.5 Home covered
O/U 148.5 Over
Money MICH -163 / LSU +180
Model Predictions
Spread Total MICH win
Actual MICH +8 164 Won
Massey MICH -4.7 (+3.3)
Massey Totals 153.0 (+11.0)
Bradley-Terry 74%
Weighted B-T 80%
Baseline Plus ML MICH -4.5 (+3.5) 150.2 (+13.8) 75%
Model 4 ML MICH -4.2 (+3.8) 148.3 (+15.7) 71%
Model 3 ML MICH -5.4 (+2.6) 149.4 (+14.6) 72%
Baseline ML MICH -4.7 (+3.3) 148.0 (+16.0) 69%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings MICH LSU
Overall 23-5 19-10
Conference 14-3 11-6
Home 13-1 11-2
Away 6-2 4-6
Neutral 4-2 4-2
Last 5 3-2 4-1
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 75.8 81.8
Avg Pts Against 65.1 75.2
Massey 19.0 (#6) 14.3 (#18)
Bradley-Terry 3.33 (#3) 2.31 (#26)
W. Bradley-Terry 4.36 (#3) 2.96 (#26)
RPI 0.622 (#5) 0.593 (#22)
Shooting & Four Factors MICH LSU
FG% 48.3% 46.1%
3PT% 38.5% 34.9%
REB / G 37.5 38.7
OREB / G 9.2 11.6
AST / TO 1.39 1.05
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 54.9% 52.6%
TOV% 16.6% 16.0%
ORB% 29.6% 31.8%
FT Rate 23.1% 25.5%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 44.6% 48.1%
Opp TOV% 14.9% 17.9%
DRB% 75.1% 67.6%
Opp FT Rate 18.8% 20.8%

Game Analysis

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