Betting Lines
| Spread | MICH -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | MICH -163 LSU +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MICH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MICH +8 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | MICH -4.7 (+3.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.0 (+11.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MICH -4.1 (+3.9) | 149.4 (+14.6) | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MICH -2.1 (+5.9) | 148.6 (+15.4) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MICH -3.5 (+4.5) | 150.4 (+13.6) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MICH -3.9 (+4.1) | 147.5 (+16.5) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MICH | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-5 | 19-10 |
| Conference | 14-3 | 11-6 |
| Home | 13-1 | 11-2 |
| Away | 6-2 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.8 | 81.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.1 | 75.2 |
| Massey | 19.0 (#6) | 14.3 (#18) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.33 (#3) | 2.31 (#26) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.36 (#3) | 2.96 (#26) |
| RPI | 0.622 (#5) | 0.593 (#22) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MICH | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.3% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 38.5% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 38.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.9% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 31.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.6% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 75.1% | 67.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.8% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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