Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -22.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | ILL -8000 DREX +3300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +29 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -19.3 (+9.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.6 (-16.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -15.3 (+13.7) | 146.7 (-19.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -13.3 (+15.7) | 141.5 (-14.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -14.9 (+14.1) | 144.4 (-17.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -15.7 (+13.3) | 146.0 (-19.0) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | DREX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-7 | 12-8 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 4-5 |
| Home | 11-2 | 3-2 |
| Away | 9-3 | 4-5 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.5 | 70.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.6 | 67.4 |
| Massey | 21.3 (#2) | 2.0 (#133) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.47 (#3) | 0.38 (#141) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.71 (#3) | 0.37 (#151) |
| RPI | 0.617 (#8) | 0.520 (#135) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | DREX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.9% | 47.7% |
| 3PT% | 37.6% | 37.2% |
| REB / G | 40.4 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.6% | 54.3% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 33.0% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 27.1% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 77.8% | 75.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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