Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | HOU -300 RUTG +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +3 | 123 | Won |
| Massey | HOU -8.6 (-5.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.6 (-7.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -7.4 (-4.4) | 133.6 (-10.6) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -7.5 (-4.5) | 129.7 (-6.7) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -7.7 (-4.7) | 133.5 (-10.5) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -7.6 (-4.6) | 131.2 (-8.2) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | RUTG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-4 | 16-12 |
| Conference | 14-3 | 10-10 |
| Home | 15-0 | 10-4 |
| Away | 5-3 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 8-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 69.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 58.6 | 67.6 |
| Massey | 20.2 (#4) | 11.6 (#37) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.02 (#8) | 2.21 (#29) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.91 (#8) | 2.92 (#27) |
| RPI | 0.635 (#2) | 0.564 (#54) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | RUTG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 40.5 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 14.3 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 39.8% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 17.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.0% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.7% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.9% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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