Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
| Money | UVA -275 OHIO +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OHIO +4 | 120 | Lost |
| Massey | UVA -7.2 (-11.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.3 (-9.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -8.0 (-12.0) | 123.5 (-3.5) | 71% ✗ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | UVA -6.7 (-10.7) | 118.6 (+1.4) | 68% ✗ |
| Model 3 ML | UVA -8.3 (-12.3) | 128.8 (-8.8) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -8.2 (-12.2) | 128.6 (-8.6) | 71% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | OHIO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-7 | 17-8 |
| Conference | 13-4 | 9-5 |
| Home | 10-1 | 8-3 |
| Away | 6-3 | 4-4 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.6 | 78.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 58.2 | 72.6 |
| Massey | 13.8 (#25) | 6.6 (#88) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.28 (#27) | 0.78 (#109) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.23 (#18) | 0.85 (#111) |
| RPI | 0.582 (#32) | 0.532 (#108) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | OHIO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.0% | 48.7% |
| 3PT% | 38.1% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 6.5 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.48 | 1.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.1% | 55.8% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 23.1% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 17.9% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 77.4% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.2% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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