The tide is high, but I'm holding on. "The Tide is High" - Blondie
(4) Virginia Cavaliers
58 62
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(13) Ohio Bobcats
Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall (Neutral) · March 20, 2021
Betting Lines
Spread UVA -6.5 Away covered
O/U 130.5 Under
Money UVA -275 / OHIO +275
Model Predictions
Spread Total UVA win
Actual OHIO +4 120 Lost
Massey UVA -7.2 (-11.2)
Massey Totals 129.3 (-9.3)
Bradley-Terry 82%
Weighted B-T 91%
Baseline Plus ML UVA -8.0 (-12.0) 123.5 (-3.5) 71%
Model 4 ML UVA -6.7 (-10.7) 118.6 (+1.4) 68%
Model 3 ML UVA -8.3 (-12.3) 128.8 (-8.8) 78%
Baseline ML UVA -8.2 (-12.2) 128.6 (-8.6) 71%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UVA OHIO
Overall 18-7 17-8
Conference 13-4 9-5
Home 10-1 8-3
Away 6-3 4-4
Neutral 2-4 5-1
Last 5 3-2 4-1
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 65.6 78.7
Avg Pts Against 58.2 72.6
Massey 13.8 (#25) 6.6 (#88)
Bradley-Terry 2.28 (#27) 0.78 (#109)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.23 (#18) 0.85 (#111)
RPI 0.582 (#32) 0.532 (#108)
Shooting & Four Factors UVA OHIO
FG% 48.0% 48.7%
3PT% 38.1% 36.6%
REB / G 31.8 34.7
OREB / G 6.5 9.7
AST / TO 1.48 1.45
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 56.1% 55.8%
TOV% 15.4% 17.0%
ORB% 23.1% 28.7%
FT Rate 17.9% 20.9%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.9% 51.1%
Opp TOV% 15.2% 20.0%
DRB% 77.4% 72.5%
Opp FT Rate 18.2% 23.2%

Game Analysis

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