Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -19.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | HOU -4000 CLE +2500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +31 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | HOU -21.4 (+9.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.8 (+13.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -16.6 (+14.4) | 137.3 (+5.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -15.6 (+15.4) | 134.9 (+8.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -17.2 (+13.8) | 137.5 (+5.5) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -16.3 (+14.7) | 138.8 (+4.2) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-4 | 19-8 |
| Conference | 14-3 | 16-4 |
| Home | 15-0 | 9-2 |
| Away | 5-3 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 8-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 70.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 58.6 | 71.2 |
| Massey | 19.7 (#4) | -1.7 (#190) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.98 (#8) | 0.61 (#118) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.84 (#10) | 0.42 (#145) |
| RPI | 0.627 (#4) | 0.588 (#25) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 40.6 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.2 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 39.4% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.9% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.7% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.6% | 27.1% |
Game Analysis
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