Betting Lines
| Spread | LUC -7.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 125.0 Under |
| Money | LUC -275 ORST +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LUC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ORST +7 | 123 | Lost |
| Massey | LUC -7.4 (-14.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.8 (-1.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LUC -5.4 (-12.4) | 127.8 (-4.8) | 70% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LUC -4.2 (-11.2) | 124.9 (-1.9) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LUC -4.6 (-11.6) | 126.8 (-3.8) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LUC -4.7 (-11.7) | 127.1 (-4.1) | 61% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LUC | ORST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-5 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 10-10 |
| Home | 13-0 | 10-6 |
| Away | 8-3 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 6-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.1 | 69.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 56.4 | 68.4 |
| Massey | 15.7 (#11) | 8.3 (#66) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.78 (#12) | 2.03 (#40) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.68 (#10) | 2.78 (#30) |
| RPI | 0.608 (#14) | 0.546 (#82) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LUC | ORST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.7% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 7.6 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.3% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 26.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.2% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.7% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 79.4% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.5% | 27.9% |
Game Analysis
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