Betting Lines
| Spread | MICH -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | MICH -110 FSU +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MICH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MICH +18 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | MICH -3.9 (+14.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.1 (-6.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MICH -2.9 (+15.1) | 139.4 (-5.4) | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MICH -1.2 (+16.8) | 136.6 (-2.6) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MICH -3.3 (+14.7) | 138.9 (-4.9) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MICH -3.0 (+15.0) | 138.9 (-4.9) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MICH | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-5 | 18-7 |
| Conference | 14-3 | 11-4 |
| Home | 13-1 | 12-1 |
| Away | 6-2 | 3-4 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.8 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.1 | 66.5 |
| Massey | 18.8 (#5) | 15.0 (#14) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.37 (#3) | 2.50 (#22) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.35 (#3) | 3.12 (#21) |
| RPI | 0.625 (#5) | 0.588 (#27) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MICH | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.5% | 47.8% |
| 3PT% | 38.5% | 38.2% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.2% | 54.4% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 34.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.5% | 45.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.5% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 75.2% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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