I'll write on your tombstone, "I thank you for dinner." "Bungle in the Jungle" - Jethro Tull
(2) Iowa Hawkeyes
80 95
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(7) Oregon Ducks
Gainbridge Fieldhouse (Neutral) · March 22, 2021
Betting Lines
Spread IOWA -5.0 Away covered
O/U 150.0 Over
Money IOWA -200 / ORE +220
Model Predictions
Spread Total IOWA win
Actual ORE +15 175 Lost
Massey IOWA -7.2 (-22.2)
Massey Totals 148.9 (+26.1)
Bradley-Terry 57%
Weighted B-T 69%
Efficiency Plus ML IOWA -5.2 (-20.2) 143.0 (+32.0) 71%
Baseline Tuned ML IOWA -7.3 (-22.3) 147.4 (+27.6) 78%
Baseline ML IOWA -6.5 (-21.5) 146.0 (+29.0) 74%
Baseline Plus ML IOWA -6.7 (-21.7) 148.3 (+26.7) 68%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 2, 2026 IOWA 8466 ORE
Feb 20, 2025 ORE 8078 IOWA

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings IOWA ORE
Overall 22-9 21-7
Conference 14-6 14-4
Home 14-2 11-2
Away 6-4 7-2
Neutral 2-3 4-3
Last 5 4-1 4-1
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 83.7 72.3
Avg Pts Against 72.7 66.0
Massey 19.5 (#5) 12.2 (#32)
Bradley-Terry 2.85 (#11) 2.59 (#17)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.91 (#7) 3.10 (#20)
RPI 0.575 (#42) 0.595 (#19)
Shooting & Four Factors IOWA ORE
FG% 47.1% 47.2%
3PT% 38.8% 37.9%
REB / G 39.9 33.1
OREB / G 11.2 9.2
AST / TO 2.03 1.18
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 54.9% 54.4%
TOV% 13.2% 16.8%
ORB% 30.7% 28.4%
FT Rate 23.1% 18.9%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 48.3% 50.1%
Opp TOV% 16.2% 20.4%
DRB% 70.9% 72.8%
Opp FT Rate 15.1% 20.7%

Game Analysis

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