Betting Lines
| Spread | IOWA -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | ORE +425 IOWA -575 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ORE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IOWA +18 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | IOWA -8.7 (-9.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.5 (+11.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IOWA -5.6 (-12.4) | 133.2 (+16.8) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IOWA -7.1 (-10.9) | 133.6 (+16.4) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IOWA -7.5 (-10.5) | 133.9 (+16.1) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IOWA -8.5 (-9.5) | 132.7 (+17.3) | 22% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2025 | ORE 80 – 78 IOWA |
| Mar 22, 2021 | ORE 95 – 80 IOWA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ORE | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 24-13 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 10-10 |
| Home | 10-7 | 15-3 |
| Away | 2-8 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 0-5 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.9 | 66.3 |
| Massey | 5.7 (#97) | 17.4 (#25) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.52 (#116) | 2.71 (#28) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.82 (#108) | 3.66 (#27) |
| RPI | 0.517 (#137) | 0.591 (#42) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ORE | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 50.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 30.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.52 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 58.0% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 34.7% | 31.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 28.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 22.5% |
| DRB% | 68.0% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.2% | 26.9% |
Game Analysis
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