Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Under |
| Money | CONN -150 MD +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MD +9 | 117 | Lost |
| Massey | CONN -2.5 (-11.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.8 (-12.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -2.6 (-11.6) | 133.3 (-16.3) | 62% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -2.0 (-11.0) | 129.3 (-12.3) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -2.3 (-11.3) | 132.8 (-15.8) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -2.6 (-11.6) | 134.1 (-17.1) | 64% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | MD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-8 | 17-14 |
| Conference | 11-6 | 9-11 |
| Home | 7-3 | 11-6 |
| Away | 6-3 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 67.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.6 | 65.9 |
| Massey | 14.1 (#20) | 11.6 (#35) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.19 (#32) | 1.83 (#48) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.92 (#27) | 2.55 (#42) |
| RPI | 0.577 (#37) | 0.549 (#75) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | MD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 38.1 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 6.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 36.8% | 20.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.2% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 75.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.1% | 18.4% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.