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Baseline — 2025 NCAA Tournament

Each decided game is marked by whether this model's pre-game favorite won — matchup by matchup, from predictions recorded before tip-off. Undecided games show the model's current pick.

Plain bracket
53–14 on winners log loss 0.3797 upsets called 2 upsets missed 9 First Four 2–2 · 1st Round 26–6 · 2nd Round 13–3 · Sweet 16 8–0 · Elite 8 4–0 · Final Four 0–2 · National Championship 0–1

East

1 Duke 93
16 Mount St Marys 49
FF: MSM 83, AMER 72
✓ DUKE 91%
8 Mississippi St 72
9 Baylor 75
✓ BAY 51%
5 Oregon 81
12 Liberty 52
✓ ORE 74%
4 Arizona 93
13 Akron 65
✓ ARIZ 86%
6 BYU 80
11 VCU 71
✓ BYU 67%
3 Wisconsin 85
14 Montana 66
✓ WIS 89%
7 Saint Mary's 59
10 Vanderbilt 56
✓ SMC 68%
2 Alabama 90
15 Robert Morris 81
✓ ALA 90%
1 Duke 89
9 Baylor 66
✓ DUKE 87%
5 Oregon 83
4 Arizona 87
✓ ARIZ 61%
6 BYU 91
3 Wisconsin 89
✗ WIS 49%
7 Saint Mary's 66
2 Alabama 80
✓ ALA 77%
1 Duke 100
4 Arizona 93
✓ DUKE 84%
6 BYU 88
2 Alabama 113
✓ ALA 74%
1 Duke 85
2 Alabama 65
✓ DUKE 70%

Midwest

1 Houston 78
16 SIUE 40
✓ HOU 90%
8 Gonzaga 89
9 Georgia 68
✓ GONZ 78%
5 Clemson 67
12 McNeese 69
✗ CLEM 67%
4 Purdue 75
13 High Point 63
✓ PUR 83%
6 Illinois 86
11 Xavier 73
FF: XAV 86, TEX 80
✓ ILL 72%
3 Kentucky 76
14 Troy 57
✓ UK 85%
7 UCLA 72
10 Utah State 47
✓ UCLA 70%
2 Tennessee 77
15 Wofford 62
✓ TENN 90%
1 Houston 81
8 Gonzaga 76
✓ HOU 69%
12 McNeese 62
4 Purdue 76
✓ PUR 80%
6 Illinois 75
3 Kentucky 84
✓ UK 47%
7 UCLA 58
2 Tennessee 67
✓ TENN 79%
1 Houston 62
4 Purdue 60
✓ HOU 81%
3 Kentucky 65
2 Tennessee 78
✓ TENN 67%
1 Houston 69
2 Tennessee 50
✓ HOU 75%

Final Four

1 Duke 67
1 Houston 70
✗ DUKE 54%

Championship

1 Houston 63
1 Florida 65
✗ HOU 45%

Final Four

1 Auburn 73
1 Florida 79
✗ AUB 44%

West

1 Florida 95
16 Norfolk St 69
✓ FLA 91%
8 UConn 67
9 Oklahoma 59
✓ CONN 66%
5 Memphis 70
12 Colorado St 78
✗ MEM 40%
4 Maryland 81
13 Grand Canyon 49
✓ MD 86%
6 Missouri 57
11 Drake 67
✗ MIZ 64%
3 Texas Tech 82
14 UNC Wilmington 72
✓ TTU 89%
7 Kansas 72
10 Arkansas 79
✗ KU 59%
2 St John's 83
15 Omaha 53
✓ SJU 90%
1 Florida 77
8 UConn 75
✓ FLA 87%
12 Colorado St 71
4 Maryland 72
✓ MD 83%
11 Drake 64
3 Texas Tech 77
✓ TTU 78%
10 Arkansas 75
2 St John's 66
✗ SJU 68%
1 Florida 87
4 Maryland 71
✓ FLA 78%
3 Texas Tech 85
10 Arkansas 83
✓ TTU 72%
1 Florida 84
3 Texas Tech 79
✓ FLA 81%

South

1 Auburn 83
16 Alabama St 63
FF: ALST 70, SFPA 68
✓ AUB 89%
8 Louisville 75
9 Creighton 89
✗ LOU 60%
5 Michigan 68
12 UC San Diego 65
✓ MICH 68%
4 Texas A&M 80
13 Yale 71
✓ TA&M 83%
6 Ole Miss 71
11 North Carolina 64
FF: UNC 95, SDSU 68
✓ MISS 58%
3 Iowa State 82
14 Lipscomb 55
✓ ISU 87%
7 Marquette 66
10 New Mexico 75
✗ MARQ 56%
2 Michigan St 87
15 Bryant 62
✓ MSU 90%
1 Auburn 82
9 Creighton 70
✓ AUB 86%
5 Michigan 91
4 Texas A&M 79
✓ MICH 65%
6 Ole Miss 91
3 Iowa State 78
✗ ISU 55%
10 New Mexico 63
2 Michigan St 71
✓ MSU 71%
1 Auburn 78
5 Michigan 65
✓ AUB 82%
6 Ole Miss 70
2 Michigan St 73
✓ MSU 63%
1 Auburn 70
2 Michigan St 64
✓ AUB 81%