All my failings exposed, gets a taste in my mouth as desperation takes hold "Love Will Tear Us Apart" - Joy Division
(3) Wisconsin Badgers
85 66
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(14) Montana Grizzlies
Ball Arena (Neutral) · March 20, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread WIS -16.5 Home covered
O/U 152.5 Under
Money WIS -1400 / MONT +750
Model Predictions
Spread Total WIS win
Actual WIS +19 151 Won
Massey WIS -17.8 (+1.2)
Massey Totals 151.4 (-0.4)
Bradley-Terry 89%
Weighted B-T 96%
Baseline Plus ML WIS -17.1 (+1.9) 148.2 (+2.8) 89%
Model 4 ML WIS -15.9 (+3.1) 150.6 (+0.4) 89%
Model 3 ML WIS -16.5 (+2.5) 148.7 (+2.3) 89%
Baseline ML WIS -15.9 (+3.1) 148.5 (+2.5) 89%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings WIS MONT
Overall 27-10 25-10
Conference 13-7 15-3
Home 14-3 15-1
Away 6-5 7-8
Neutral 7-2 3-1
Last 5 3-2 4-1
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 80.1 75.2
Avg Pts Against 70.9 75.0
Massey 17.7 (#16) -0.1 (#160)
Bradley-Terry 2.95 (#16) 0.90 (#96)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.87 (#14) 0.74 (#114)
RPI 0.596 (#22) 0.572 (#49)
Shooting & Four Factors WIS MONT
FG% 45.2% 49.6%
3PT% 34.9% 36.5%
REB / G 36.5 30.5
OREB / G 9.4 6.7
AST / TO 1.51 1.20
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 53.6% 56.4%
TOV% 14.1% 16.3%
ORB% 28.0% 22.6%
FT Rate 27.9% 27.0%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.9% 52.2%
Opp TOV% 14.5% 15.5%
DRB% 73.4% 71.0%
Opp FT Rate 20.3% 23.6%

Game Analysis

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