Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | HOU -105 FLA -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FLA +2 | 128 | Lost |
| Massey | HOU -0.5 (-2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.1 (-11.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -1.4 (-3.4) | 132.6 (-4.6) | 54% ✗ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | HOU -3.0 (-5.0) | 130.4 (-2.4) | 56% ✗ |
| Model 3 ML | HOU -1.5 (-3.5) | 134.2 (-6.2) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -1.1 (-3.1) | 135.9 (-7.9) | 45% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 35-5 | 36-4 |
| Conference | 19-1 | 14-4 |
| Home | 16-1 | 15-1 |
| Away | 10-0 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 9-4 | 14-0 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | W12 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 84.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 58.6 | 69.6 |
| Massey | 25.5 (#3) | 25.0 (#4) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.55 (#3) | 5.01 (#1) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.82 (#3) | 6.35 (#1) |
| RPI | 0.663 (#3) | 0.658 (#4) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 39.9% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 41.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 13.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 1.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 55.1% |
| TOV% | 14.2% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 37.0% | 38.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.8% | 45.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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