Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Under |
| Money | HOU -155 TENN +135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +19 | 119 | Won |
| Massey | HOU -3.0 (+16.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 119.3 (-0.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -4.8 (+14.2) | 123.6 (-4.6) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -4.8 (+14.2) | 124.6 (-5.6) | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -4.4 (+14.6) | 123.5 (-4.5) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -5.3 (+13.7) | 121.3 (-2.3) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 25, 2025 | TENN 76 – 73 HOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | TENN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 35-5 | 30-8 |
| Conference | 19-1 | 12-6 |
| Home | 16-1 | 16-1 |
| Away | 10-0 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 9-4 | 8-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 58.6 | 63.1 |
| Massey | 24.9 (#3) | 22.0 (#6) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.28 (#5) | 4.34 (#3) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.41 (#4) | 5.53 (#3) |
| RPI | 0.653 (#4) | 0.641 (#6) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | TENN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 39.8% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 1.48 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 36.7% | 35.7% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 26.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.1% | 44.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.0% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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