Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 162.5 Under |
| Money | ILL -190 XAV +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +13 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -5.2 (+7.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.8 (-1.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -3.6 (+9.4) | 160.9 (-1.9) | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -3.5 (+9.5) | 162.3 (-3.3) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -2.6 (+10.4) | 159.8 (-0.8) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -4.1 (+8.9) | 161.3 (-2.3) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 13-7 |
| Home | 13-4 | 15-2 |
| Away | 5-5 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.6 | 78.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 71.6 |
| Massey | 18.5 (#14) | 13.3 (#39) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.67 (#29) | 1.97 (#52) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.56 (#20) | 2.65 (#47) |
| RPI | 0.582 (#40) | 0.560 (#61) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 39.1% |
| REB / G | 42.5 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 1.53 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 54.3% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 36.0% | 24.9% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 29.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.7% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 74.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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