Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -21.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 168.5 Over |
| Money | ALA -4000 RMU +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +9 | 171 | Won |
| Massey | ALA -21.4 (-12.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 167.7 (+3.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -15.5 (-6.5) | 163.3 (+7.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -16.3 (-7.3) | 166.6 (+4.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -14.9 (-5.9) | 162.7 (+8.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -16.0 (-7.0) | 161.7 (+9.3) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | RMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 26-9 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 15-5 |
| Home | 12-3 | 16-2 |
| Away | 9-3 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 90.7 | 76.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.3 | 71.6 |
| Massey | 22.6 (#5) | 1.2 (#140) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.07 (#5) | 0.77 (#109) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.91 (#6) | 0.74 (#115) |
| RPI | 0.660 (#2) | 0.538 (#94) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | RMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.3% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 43.1 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.3% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 34.7% | 35.1% |
| FT Rate | 28.7% | 27.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.5% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
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