Betting Lines
| Spread | TTU -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 125.5 Over |
| Money | TTU -350 DRKE +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TTU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TTU +13 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | TTU -11.4 (+1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.0 (+12.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TTU -7.6 (+5.4) | 129.1 (+11.9) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TTU -7.1 (+5.9) | 123.0 (+18.0) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TTU -7.9 (+5.1) | 121.2 (+19.8) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TTU -7.3 (+5.7) | 126.6 (+14.4) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TTU | DRKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 31-4 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 17-3 |
| Home | 15-3 | 14-2 |
| Away | 8-2 | 9-1 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 8-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.9 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 60.2 |
| Massey | 20.4 (#9) | 8.9 (#65) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.92 (#16) | 2.90 (#17) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.80 (#15) | 3.44 (#23) |
| RPI | 0.590 (#32) | 0.596 (#25) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TTU | DRKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 47.6% |
| 3PT% | 37.4% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 30.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.70 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.2% | 54.0% |
| TOV% | 14.6% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 34.1% | 36.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 30.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 22.3% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 26.6% |
Game Analysis
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