Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 175.5 Over |
| Money | ALA -205 BYU +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +25 | 201 | Won |
| Massey | ALA -5.6 (+19.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 174.7 (+26.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -7.3 (+17.7) | 175.2 (+25.8) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -4.8 (+20.2) | 176.4 (+24.6) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -5.5 (+19.5) | 173.2 (+27.8) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -5.6 (+19.4) | 177.7 (+23.3) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | BYU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 26-10 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 14-6 |
| Home | 12-3 | 15-2 |
| Away | 9-3 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 90.7 | 81.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.3 | 72.6 |
| Massey | 22.6 (#5) | 17.0 (#20) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.14 (#6) | 2.89 (#20) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.02 (#6) | 3.33 (#32) |
| RPI | 0.666 (#2) | 0.582 (#40) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | BYU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.6% | 48.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 42.9 | 37.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 1.42 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.6% | 57.3% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 34.2% | 33.4% |
| FT Rate | 28.7% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.3% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 21.0% |
Game Analysis
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