Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 167.5 Under |
| Money | UK +120 ILL -140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UK +9 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -0.5 (+9.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 169.0 (-10.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UK -0.8 (+8.2) | 169.7 (-10.7) | 52% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -0.1 (+9.1) | 170.3 (-11.3) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UK -1.0 (+8.0) | 167.8 (-8.8) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UK -1.3 (+7.7) | 169.7 (-10.7) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UK | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 12-8 |
| Home | 15-3 | 13-4 |
| Away | 4-6 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.4 | 83.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.2 | 74.8 |
| Massey | 18.4 (#15) | 18.9 (#13) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.36 (#8) | 2.77 (#23) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.93 (#13) | 3.68 (#19) |
| RPI | 0.620 (#14) | 0.587 (#36) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UK | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 37.4% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 42.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.54 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.0% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 28.5% | 35.9% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 26.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.1% | 12.5% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 19.1% |
Game Analysis
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