Betting Lines
| Spread | LOU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | LOU -165 CREI +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CREI +14 | 164 | Lost |
| Massey | LOU -2.9 (-16.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.1 (+17.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LOU -2.1 (-16.1) | 143.8 (+20.2) | 60% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LOU -1.3 (-15.3) | 147.5 (+16.5) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LOU -3.1 (-17.1) | 143.4 (+20.6) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LOU -2.3 (-16.3) | 143.5 (+20.5) | 61% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | CREI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 25-11 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 15-5 |
| Home | 14-3 | 15-2 |
| Away | 9-2 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.5 | 75.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 70.0 |
| Massey | 16.3 (#23) | 13.4 (#38) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.07 (#14) | 2.33 (#41) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.67 (#17) | 2.80 (#41) |
| RPI | 0.606 (#18) | 0.584 (#36) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | CREI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 47.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.4% | 55.8% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 11.8% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.2% | 12.1% |
Game Analysis
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