All my failings exposed, gets a taste in my mouth as desperation takes hold "Love Will Tear Us Apart" - Joy Division
(8) Louisville Cardinals
75 89
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(9) Creighton Bluejays
Rupp Arena (Neutral) · March 20, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread LOU -3.5 Away covered
O/U 145.5 Over
Money LOU -165 / CREI +140
Model Predictions
Spread Total LOU win
Actual CREI +14 164 Lost
Massey LOU -2.9 (-16.9)
Massey Totals 146.1 (+17.9)
Bradley-Terry 68%
Weighted B-T 71%
Baseline Plus ML LOU -4.5 (-18.5) 142.8 (+21.2) 66%
Model 4 ML LOU -2.4 (-16.4) 148.4 (+15.6) 63%
Model 3 ML LOU -2.6 (-16.6) 143.3 (+20.7) 68%
Baseline ML LOU -3.5 (-17.5) 144.5 (+19.5) 60%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings LOU CREI
Overall 27-8 25-11
Conference 18-2 15-5
Home 14-3 15-2
Away 9-2 6-6
Neutral 4-3 4-3
Last 5 4-1 4-1
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 78.5 75.5
Avg Pts Against 69.5 70.0
Massey 16.3 (#23) 13.4 (#38)
Bradley-Terry 3.07 (#14) 2.33 (#41)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.67 (#17) 2.80 (#41)
RPI 0.606 (#18) 0.584 (#36)
Shooting & Four Factors LOU CREI
FG% 45.4% 47.5%
3PT% 33.0% 33.9%
REB / G 37.4 37.7
OREB / G 11.2 8.6
AST / TO 1.22 1.39
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 53.4% 55.8%
TOV% 16.5% 18.1%
ORB% 32.2% 26.9%
FT Rate 25.7% 20.9%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.2% 47.0%
Opp TOV% 18.6% 11.8%
DRB% 72.8% 72.8%
Opp FT Rate 19.2% 12.1%

Game Analysis

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