Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | MSU -290 UNM +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +8 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | MSU -6.4 (+1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.1 (-15.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -6.0 (+2.0) | 146.7 (-12.7) | 76% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | MSU -6.0 (+2.0) | 144.3 (-10.3) | 75% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | MSU -6.5 (+1.5) | 144.2 (-10.2) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -5.4 (+2.6) | 144.7 (-10.7) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | UNM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-7 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 17-3 |
| Home | 15-1 | 15-1 |
| Away | 8-2 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 7-4 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.7 | 79.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 70.6 |
| Massey | 19.6 (#12) | 13.2 (#39) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.55 (#7) | 2.55 (#34) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.55 (#7) | 3.47 (#22) |
| RPI | 0.630 (#8) | 0.604 (#19) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | UNM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 40.2 | 39.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.46 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 35.9% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 29.3% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.9% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 75.5% | 74.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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