Twenty-one years in captivity / His shoes too small to fit his feet "Nelson Mandela" - The Specials
(2) Michigan State Spartans
71 63
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(10) New Mexico Lobos
Rocket Arena (Neutral) · March 24, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread MSU -6.5 Home covered
O/U 148.5 Under
Money MSU -290 / UNM +240
Model Predictions
Spread Total MSU win
Actual MSU +8 134 Won
Massey MSU -6.4 (+1.6)
Massey Totals 149.1 (-15.1)
Bradley-Terry 73%
Weighted B-T 75%
Baseline Plus ML MSU -6.0 (+2.0) 146.7 (-12.7) 76%
Model 4 ML MSU -6.0 (+2.0) 144.3 (-10.3) 75%
Model 3 ML MSU -6.5 (+1.5) 144.2 (-10.2) 77%
Baseline ML MSU -5.4 (+2.6) 144.7 (-10.7) 71%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings MSU UNM
Overall 30-7 27-8
Conference 17-3 17-3
Home 15-1 15-1
Away 8-2 7-4
Neutral 7-4 5-3
Last 5 4-1 4-1
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 77.7 79.3
Avg Pts Against 67.1 70.6
Massey 19.6 (#12) 13.2 (#39)
Bradley-Terry 3.55 (#7) 2.55 (#34)
W. Bradley-Terry 4.55 (#7) 3.47 (#22)
RPI 0.630 (#8) 0.604 (#19)
Shooting & Four Factors MSU UNM
FG% 46.1% 45.3%
3PT% 31.1% 34.1%
REB / G 40.2 39.2
OREB / G 12.1 12.1
AST / TO 1.46 1.27
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 51.2% 50.8%
TOV% 16.6% 15.7%
ORB% 35.9% 31.5%
FT Rate 29.3% 26.0%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 45.9% 49.2%
Opp TOV% 16.3% 20.4%
DRB% 75.5% 74.4%
Opp FT Rate 23.3% 23.0%

Game Analysis

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