I like bread and butter. I like toast and jam. "Bread and Butter" - The Newbeats
(3) Texas Tech Red Raiders
82 72
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(14) UNC Wilmington Seahawks
INTRUST Bank Arena (Neutral) · March 21, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread TTU -15.5 Away covered
O/U 143.5 Over
Money TTU -1600 / UNCW +800
Model Predictions
Spread Total TTU win
Actual TTU +10 154 Won
Massey TTU -17.0 (-7.0)
Massey Totals 147.1 (+6.9)
Bradley-Terry 86%
Weighted B-T 95%
Baseline Plus ML TTU -16.0 (-6.0) 146.5 (+7.5) 88%
Model 4 ML TTU -14.7 (-4.7) 146.1 (+7.9) 88%
Model 3 ML TTU -16.8 (-6.8) 148.5 (+5.5) 89%
Baseline ML TTU -16.6 (-6.6) 149.1 (+4.9) 89%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings TTU UNCW
Overall 28-9 27-8
Conference 15-5 14-4
Home 15-3 15-3
Away 8-2 9-4
Neutral 5-4 3-1
Last 5 4-1 5-0
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 80.9 76.6
Avg Pts Against 68.5 70.3
Massey 20.5 (#8) 3.5 (#111)
Bradley-Terry 2.84 (#19) 0.98 (#91)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.73 (#16) 0.88 (#108)
RPI 0.583 (#36) 0.556 (#70)
Shooting & Four Factors TTU UNCW
FG% 47.0% 46.3%
3PT% 37.9% 33.0%
REB / G 36.7 37.3
OREB / G 11.6 12.0
AST / TO 1.67 1.36
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 55.5% 52.2%
TOV% 14.8% 16.0%
ORB% 34.3% 35.4%
FT Rate 22.7% 28.5%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 48.0% 50.9%
Opp TOV% 17.4% 17.4%
DRB% 71.5% 71.9%
Opp FT Rate 23.3% 20.6%

Game Analysis

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