Betting Lines
| Spread | TTU -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | TTU -1600 UNCW +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TTU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TTU +10 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | TTU -17.0 (-7.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.1 (+6.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TTU -13.2 (-3.2) | 146.9 (+7.1) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TTU -12.8 (-2.8) | 144.8 (+9.2) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TTU -13.3 (-3.3) | 144.2 (+9.8) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TTU -13.0 (-3.0) | 147.5 (+6.5) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TTU | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 14-4 |
| Home | 15-3 | 15-3 |
| Away | 8-2 | 9-4 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.9 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 70.3 |
| Massey | 20.5 (#8) | 3.5 (#111) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.84 (#19) | 0.98 (#91) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.73 (#16) | 0.88 (#108) |
| RPI | 0.583 (#36) | 0.556 (#70) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TTU | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 37.9% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.67 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.5% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 34.3% | 35.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 28.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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