Blood in the streets in the town of New Haven "Peace Frog" - The Doors
(3) Kentucky Wildcats
76 57
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(14) Troy Trojans
Fiserv Forum (Neutral) · March 21, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread UK -10.5 Home covered
O/U 151.5 Under
Money UK -750 / TROY +475
Model Predictions
Spread Total UK win
Actual UK +19 133 Won
Massey UK -13.6 (+5.4)
Massey Totals 150.7 (-17.7)
Bradley-Terry 93%
Weighted B-T 95%
Baseline Plus ML UK -13.4 (+5.6) 149.6 (-16.6) 84%
Model 4 ML UK -14.3 (+4.7) 150.6 (-17.6) 84%
Model 3 ML UK -14.4 (+4.6) 149.7 (-16.7) 85%
Baseline ML UK -13.9 (+5.1) 149.9 (-16.9) 85%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UK TROY
Overall 24-12 23-11
Conference 10-8 13-5
Home 15-3 11-4
Away 4-6 9-6
Neutral 5-3 3-1
Last 5 3-2 5-0
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 84.4 72.0
Avg Pts Against 77.2 66.3
Massey 18.2 (#15) 4.7 (#99)
Bradley-Terry 3.37 (#9) 0.71 (#116)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.92 (#12) 1.02 (#102)
RPI 0.617 (#13) 0.544 (#87)
Shooting & Four Factors UK TROY
FG% 48.2% 43.3%
3PT% 37.4% 30.3%
REB / G 38.5 37.7
OREB / G 10.1 13.5
AST / TO 1.52 1.03
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 56.0% 50.1%
TOV% 15.1% 20.0%
ORB% 28.7% 38.6%
FT Rate 26.5% 27.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 50.4% 47.2%
Opp TOV% 14.0% 19.8%
DRB% 74.1% 68.0%
Opp FT Rate 22.3% 21.1%

Game Analysis

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