Betting Lines
| Spread | UK -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | UK -750 TROY +475 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UK +19 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | UK -13.6 (+5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.7 (-17.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UK -11.2 (+7.8) | 149.1 (-16.1) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UK -11.1 (+7.9) | 149.7 (-16.7) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UK -11.0 (+8.0) | 148.4 (-15.4) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UK -10.9 (+8.1) | 149.3 (-16.3) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UK | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 13-5 |
| Home | 15-3 | 11-4 |
| Away | 4-6 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.4 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.2 | 66.3 |
| Massey | 18.2 (#15) | 4.7 (#99) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.37 (#9) | 0.71 (#116) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.92 (#12) | 1.02 (#102) |
| RPI | 0.617 (#13) | 0.544 (#87) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UK | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 37.4% | 30.3% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 13.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.52 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.0% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 38.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 27.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.0% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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