Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | GONZ -360 UGA +280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GONZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GONZ +21 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | GONZ -6.6 (+14.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.0 (+6.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -8.2 (+12.8) | 150.2 (+6.8) | 79% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | GONZ -6.2 (+14.8) | 150.9 (+6.1) | 79% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | GONZ -8.1 (+12.9) | 150.0 (+7.0) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -8.3 (+12.7) | 150.0 (+7.0) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GONZ | UGA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-9 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 8-10 |
| Home | 13-2 | 15-3 |
| Away | 7-2 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 6-5 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 86.4 | 75.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 69.9 |
| Massey | 21.0 (#7) | 14.4 (#34) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.35 (#39) | 2.80 (#22) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.20 (#31) | 3.63 (#18) |
| RPI | 0.588 (#32) | 0.578 (#44) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GONZ | UGA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.0% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 38.6 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 2.09 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.7% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 13.2% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 36.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.7% | 28.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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