Betting Lines
| Spread | MD -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | MD -380 CSU +290 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MD +1 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | MD -9.4 (-8.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.1 (-0.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MD -7.1 (-6.1) | 140.9 (+2.1) | 81% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | MD -6.9 (-5.9) | 141.4 (+1.6) | 78% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | MD -8.6 (-7.6) | 141.4 (+1.6) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MD -6.9 (-5.9) | 141.3 (+1.7) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MD | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 26-10 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 16-4 |
| Home | 17-2 | 14-2 |
| Away | 5-5 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.1 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 67.3 |
| Massey | 21.1 (#8) | 11.7 (#50) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.95 (#16) | 2.29 (#42) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.13 (#10) | 2.81 (#41) |
| RPI | 0.601 (#21) | 0.582 (#39) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MD | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 47.8% |
| 3PT% | 37.3% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 1.43 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 55.7% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.7% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.2% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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