I'm not a coward; I've just never been tested. "The Impression That I Get" - The Mighty Mighty Bosstones
(4) Texas A&M Aggies
79 91
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(5) Michigan Wolverines
Ball Arena (Neutral) · March 22, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread TA&M -2.5 Away covered
O/U 143.5 Over
Money TA&M -155 / MICH +130
Model Predictions
Spread Total TA&M win
Actual MICH +12 170 Lost
Massey MICH -0.2 (-11.8)
Massey Totals 141.8 (+28.2)
Bradley-Terry 52%
Weighted B-T 50%
Baseline Plus ML TA&M -0.6 (-12.6) 140.4 (+29.6) 47%
Model 4 ML TA&M -1.1 (-13.1) 140.8 (+29.2) 59%
Model 3 ML MICH -1.2 (-10.8) 142.3 (+27.7) 50%
Baseline ML MICH -1.1 (-10.9) 141.8 (+28.2) 35%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings TA&M MICH
Overall 23-11 27-10
Conference 11-7 14-6
Home 13-3 13-3
Away 5-5 7-3
Neutral 5-3 7-4
Last 5 3-2 4-1
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 74.6 78.0
Avg Pts Against 68.7 71.5
Massey 16.6 (#23) 16.8 (#21)
Bradley-Terry 3.21 (#11) 3.15 (#12)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.92 (#12) 3.91 (#14)
RPI 0.619 (#14) 0.620 (#13)
Shooting & Four Factors TA&M MICH
FG% 41.9% 47.2%
3PT% 30.8% 33.4%
REB / G 41.1 38.3
OREB / G 16.0 10.9
AST / TO 0.97 1.14
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 47.8% 54.4%
TOV% 18.1% 19.8%
ORB% 41.7% 33.2%
FT Rate 28.7% 25.3%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 48.3% 46.2%
Opp TOV% 19.7% 15.9%
DRB% 72.4% 70.3%
Opp FT Rate 26.8% 20.7%

Game Analysis

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