I got a baby's brain and an old man's heart "I'm Eighteen" - Alice Cooper
(6) Ole Miss Rebels
71 64
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(11) North Carolina Tar Heels
Fiserv Forum (Neutral) · March 21, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread UNC -1.5 Home covered
O/U 155.5 Under
Money MISS +105 / UNC -125
Model Predictions
Spread Total MISS win
Actual MISS +7 135 Won
Massey MISS -0.2 (+6.8)
Massey Totals 156.6 (-21.6)
Bradley-Terry 73%
Weighted B-T 76%
Baseline Plus ML MISS -0.1 (+6.9) 153.7 (-18.7) 52%
Model 4 ML MISS -0.6 (+6.4) 151.4 (-16.4) 48%
Model 3 ML MISS -0.8 (+6.2) 151.7 (-16.7) 56%
Baseline ML MISS -0.4 (+6.6) 151.3 (-16.3) 58%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings MISS UNC
Overall 24-12 23-14
Conference 10-8 13-7
Home 13-3 12-3
Away 5-6 6-6
Neutral 6-3 5-5
Last 5 3-2 3-2
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 77.2 80.7
Avg Pts Against 71.7 74.7
Massey 15.1 (#30) 14.9 (#31)
Bradley-Terry 3.27 (#10) 2.27 (#41)
W. Bradley-Terry 4.10 (#9) 2.94 (#39)
RPI 0.608 (#17) 0.591 (#30)
Shooting & Four Factors MISS UNC
FG% 44.2% 47.8%
3PT% 34.1% 36.0%
REB / G 33.1 36.8
OREB / G 9.2 9.8
AST / TO 1.60 1.37
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 51.1% 54.5%
TOV% 12.7% 15.1%
ORB% 25.4% 29.3%
FT Rate 26.3% 26.0%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 50.5% 49.5%
Opp TOV% 20.5% 15.2%
DRB% 69.2% 73.0%
Opp FT Rate 27.8% 22.5%

Game Analysis

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