Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | MISS +105 UNC -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MISS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MISS +7 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | MISS -0.2 (+6.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.6 (-21.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MISS -0.2 (+6.8) | 151.2 (-16.2) | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -0.1 (+7.1) | 151.2 (-16.2) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -0.0 (+7.0) | 152.9 (-17.9) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -0.0 (+7.0) | 151.1 (-16.1) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MISS | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 23-14 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 13-7 |
| Home | 13-3 | 12-3 |
| Away | 5-6 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 5-5 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.2 | 80.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 74.7 |
| Massey | 15.1 (#30) | 14.9 (#31) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.27 (#10) | 2.27 (#41) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.10 (#9) | 2.94 (#39) |
| RPI | 0.608 (#17) | 0.591 (#30) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MISS | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 47.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.60 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 54.5% |
| TOV% | 12.7% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 25.4% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.8% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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