If I had my time again / I would do it all the same. "Rush" - Big Audio Dynamite
(1) Auburn Tigers
83 63
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(16) Alabama State Hornets
Rupp Arena (Neutral) · March 20, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread AUB -32.5 Away covered
O/U 148.5 Under
Money AUB -25000 / ALST +3000
Model Predictions
Spread Total AUB win
Actual AUB +20 146 Won
Massey AUB -32.8 (-12.8)
Massey Totals 150.2 (-4.2)
Bradley-Terry 100%
Weighted B-T 100%
Baseline Plus ML AUB -27.6 (-7.6) 147.1 (-1.1) 89%
Model 4 ML AUB -22.6 (-2.6) 146.4 (-0.4) 90%
Model 3 ML AUB -21.3 (-1.3) 147.5 (-1.5) 90%
Baseline ML AUB -27.3 (-7.3) 147.1 (-1.1) 89%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 23, 2023 AUB 8262 ALST

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings AUB ALST
Overall 32-6 20-16
Conference 15-3 12-6
Home 13-2 8-3
Away 8-2 6-10
Neutral 11-2 6-3
Last 5 2-3 5-0
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 83.0 71.9
Avg Pts Against 69.4 72.7
Massey 26.2 (#2) -6.6 (#273)
Bradley-Terry 4.72 (#2) -0.79 (#243)
W. Bradley-Terry 5.78 (#2) -1.43 (#275)
RPI 0.678 (#1) 0.493 (#187)
Shooting & Four Factors AUB ALST
FG% 48.3% 40.1%
3PT% 36.8% 32.8%
REB / G 37.1 35.6
OREB / G 11.7 11.4
AST / TO 1.78 1.26
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 55.7% 47.1%
TOV% 13.4% 13.1%
ORB% 34.3% 28.3%
FT Rate 24.8% 20.2%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 46.0% 50.6%
Opp TOV% 17.3% 18.8%
DRB% 69.7% 69.3%
Opp FT Rate 28.8% 26.9%

Game Analysis

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