Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -32.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | AUB -25000 ALST +3000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +20 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | AUB -32.8 (-12.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.2 (-4.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -17.2 (+2.8) | 146.1 (-0.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -18.1 (+1.9) | 145.7 (+0.3) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -21.4 (-1.4) | 145.5 (+0.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -21.1 (-1.1) | 145.4 (+0.6) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 23, 2023 | AUB 82 – 62 ALST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AUB | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-6 | 20-16 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 12-6 |
| Home | 13-2 | 8-3 |
| Away | 8-2 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 11-2 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.0 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 72.7 |
| Massey | 26.2 (#2) | -6.6 (#273) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.72 (#2) | -0.79 (#243) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.78 (#2) | -1.43 (#275) |
| RPI | 0.678 (#1) | 0.493 (#187) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AUB | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.3% | 40.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.78 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.7% | 47.1% |
| TOV% | 13.4% | 13.1% |
| ORB% | 34.3% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 20.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.0% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.8% | 26.9% |
Game Analysis
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