Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -31.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +20 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | AUB -25.8 (-5.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.1 (-5.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -24.5 (-4.5) | 152.1 (-8.1) | 91% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | AUB -24.7 (-4.7) | 150.3 (-6.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | AUB -22.6 (-2.6) | 148.7 (-4.7) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -24.8 (-4.8) | 148.9 (-4.9) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 20, 2025 | AUB 83 – 63 ALST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AUB | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 8-10 |
| Home | 15-1 | 7-5 |
| Away | 5-5 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 7-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.1 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 70.9 |
| Massey | 14.8 (#14) | -6.6 (#284) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.04 (#35) | -0.43 (#229) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.78 (#37) | -0.50 (#218) |
| RPI | 0.612 (#31) | 0.505 (#163) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AUB | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 35.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 40.6 | 40.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.87 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 41.0% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 35.3% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 28.7% | 18.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.7% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.6% | 30.1% |
Game Analysis
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