Betting Lines
| Spread | SJU -19.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | SJU -3000 OMA +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJU +30 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | SJU -18.3 (+11.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.7 (-12.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJU -15.9 (+14.1) | 148.0 (-12.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJU -15.7 (+14.3) | 146.1 (-10.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJU -16.6 (+13.4) | 147.3 (-11.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SJU -16.4 (+13.6) | 147.8 (-11.8) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJU | OMA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-5 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 13-3 |
| Home | 19-0 | 11-2 |
| Away | 8-2 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.5 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.8 | 76.2 |
| Massey | 18.7 (#13) | 0.4 (#154) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.38 (#8) | 0.23 (#146) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.77 (#7) | 0.04 (#162) |
| RPI | 0.628 (#8) | 0.524 (#122) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJU | OMA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 40.9 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 14.5 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 37.3% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 26.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.9% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 74.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 27.1% |
Game Analysis
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