This will be our year, took a long time to come "This Will Be Our Year" - The Zombies
(8) Mississippi State Bulldogs
72 75
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(9) Baylor Bears
Lenovo Center (Neutral) · March 21, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread MSST -1.5 Away covered
O/U 148.5 Under
Money MSST -120 / BAY +100
Model Predictions
Spread Total MSST win
Actual BAY +3 147 Lost
Massey BAY -1.6 (-1.4)
Massey Totals 150.1 (-3.1)
Bradley-Terry 67%
Weighted B-T 66%
Baseline Plus ML BAY -0.9 (-2.1) 146.0 (+1.0) 43%
Model 4 ML MSST -0.0 (-3.0) 145.9 (+1.1) 43%
Model 3 ML MSST -0.5 (-3.5) 148.0 (-1.0) 53%
Baseline ML BAY -0.3 (-2.7) 148.6 (-1.6) 49%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings MSST BAY
Overall 21-13 20-15
Conference 8-10 10-10
Home 10-5 13-3
Away 6-5 3-9
Neutral 5-3 4-3
Last 5 2-3 3-2
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 79.5 75.2
Avg Pts Against 74.2 70.3
Massey 14.7 (#32) 16.3 (#23)
Bradley-Terry 2.83 (#21) 2.14 (#44)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.46 (#23) 2.79 (#41)
RPI 0.587 (#34) 0.567 (#53)
Shooting & Four Factors MSST BAY
FG% 45.1% 44.6%
3PT% 31.4% 34.7%
REB / G 38.2 35.0
OREB / G 13.0 12.4
AST / TO 1.44 1.33
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 51.7% 51.5%
TOV% 15.0% 16.1%
ORB% 34.1% 35.6%
FT Rate 22.1% 23.1%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 51.9% 51.2%
Opp TOV% 19.0% 18.9%
DRB% 70.5% 68.8%
Opp FT Rate 24.6% 23.4%

Game Analysis

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