Betting Lines
| Spread | MSST -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | MSST -120 BAY +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BAY +3 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | BAY -1.6 (-1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.1 (-3.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -1.4 (-1.6) | 145.8 (+1.2) | 46% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -1.2 (-1.8) | 143.6 (+3.4) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -1.7 (-1.3) | 143.4 (+3.6) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -2.1 (-0.9) | 145.6 (+1.4) | 41% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSST | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 20-15 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 10-10 |
| Home | 10-5 | 13-3 |
| Away | 6-5 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.5 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 70.3 |
| Massey | 14.7 (#32) | 16.3 (#23) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.83 (#21) | 2.14 (#44) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.46 (#23) | 2.79 (#41) |
| RPI | 0.587 (#34) | 0.567 (#53) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSST | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.44 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 34.1% | 35.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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