Betting Lines
| Spread | MIZ -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | MIZ -240 DRKE +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DRKE +10 | 124 | Lost |
| Massey | MIZ -9.1 (-19.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.7 (-11.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIZ -6.0 (-16.0) | 134.6 (-10.6) | 70% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIZ -3.5 (-13.5) | 128.5 (-4.5) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIZ -5.5 (-15.5) | 131.5 (-7.5) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MIZ -5.0 (-15.0) | 132.8 (-8.8) | 67% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIZ | DRKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 31-4 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 17-3 |
| Home | 18-2 | 14-2 |
| Away | 3-7 | 9-1 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 8-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.6 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.6 | 60.2 |
| Massey | 17.4 (#18) | 8.3 (#69) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.12 (#12) | 2.69 (#27) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.95 (#13) | 3.09 (#35) |
| RPI | 0.577 (#45) | 0.591 (#28) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIZ | DRKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.5% | 47.4% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 30.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.2% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 33.7% | 36.0% |
| FT Rate | 34.0% | 30.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 22.1% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.9% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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