Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 175.5 Under |
| Money | DUKE -275 ALA +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +20 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | DUKE -4.5 (+15.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 166.9 (-16.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -4.6 (+15.4) | 167.8 (-17.8) | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -3.5 (+16.5) | 168.4 (-18.4) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -4.8 (+15.2) | 162.0 (-12.0) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -4.2 (+15.8) | 165.7 (-15.7) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 35-4 | 28-9 |
| Conference | 19-1 | 13-5 |
| Home | 17-0 | 12-3 |
| Away | 10-1 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 8-3 | 7-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.2 | 90.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.8 | 81.3 |
| Massey | 27.7 (#1) | 23.2 (#5) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.29 (#4) | 4.19 (#6) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.40 (#5) | 5.08 (#6) |
| RPI | 0.652 (#5) | 0.667 (#2) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.4% | 48.7% |
| 3PT% | 38.5% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 42.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.83 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.2% | 57.0% |
| TOV% | 13.9% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 34.3% | 34.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 28.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.4% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 13.3% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.1% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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