Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | DUKE -500 ARIZ +360 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +7 | 193 | Won |
| Massey | DUKE -7.7 (-0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.3 (+41.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -7.2 (-0.2) | 151.9 (+41.1) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -6.0 (+1.0) | 151.0 (+42.0) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -6.2 (+0.8) | 149.6 (+43.4) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -6.3 (+0.7) | 153.0 (+40.0) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 23, 2024 | DUKE 69 – 55 ARIZ |
| Nov 11, 2023 | ARIZ 78 – 73 DUKE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | ARIZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 35-4 | 24-13 |
| Conference | 19-1 | 14-6 |
| Home | 17-0 | 13-3 |
| Away | 10-1 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 8-3 | 5-5 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.2 | 82.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.8 | 73.3 |
| Massey | 27.7 (#1) | 20.0 (#10) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.22 (#4) | 2.87 (#20) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.32 (#5) | 3.69 (#18) |
| RPI | 0.652 (#4) | 0.593 (#28) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | ARIZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.2% | 47.5% |
| 3PT% | 38.1% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 40.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.82 | 1.42 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.9% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 14.0% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 34.4% | 36.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 27.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.1% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.7% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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