He is handing the money / He is serving the food / He knows about your party / He is calling you dude. "Comfort Eagle" - Cake
(1) Duke Blue Devils
100 93
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(4) Arizona Wildcats
Prudential Center (Neutral) · March 28, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread DUKE -9.5 Away covered
O/U 154.5 Over
Money DUKE -500 / ARIZ +360
Model Predictions
Spread Total DUKE win
Actual DUKE +7 193 Won
Massey DUKE -7.7 (-0.7)
Massey Totals 151.3 (+41.7)
Bradley-Terry 79%
Weighted B-T 84%
Baseline Plus ML DUKE -8.8 (-1.8) 151.7 (+41.3) 84%
Model 4 ML DUKE -8.5 (-1.5) 154.3 (+38.7) 82%
Model 3 ML DUKE -10.3 (-3.3) 151.3 (+41.7) 82%
Baseline ML DUKE -8.5 (-1.5) 156.1 (+36.9) 84%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 23, 2024 DUKE 6955 ARIZ
Nov 11, 2023 ARIZ 7873 DUKE

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings DUKE ARIZ
Overall 35-4 24-13
Conference 19-1 14-6
Home 17-0 13-3
Away 10-1 6-5
Neutral 8-3 5-5
Last 5 5-0 4-1
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 83.2 82.5
Avg Pts Against 62.8 73.3
Massey 27.7 (#1) 20.0 (#10)
Bradley-Terry 4.22 (#4) 2.87 (#20)
W. Bradley-Terry 5.32 (#5) 3.69 (#18)
RPI 0.652 (#4) 0.593 (#28)
Shooting & Four Factors DUKE ARIZ
FG% 49.2% 47.5%
3PT% 38.1% 33.4%
REB / G 38.5 40.1
OREB / G 10.9 12.3
AST / TO 1.82 1.42
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 57.9% 53.3%
TOV% 14.0% 16.3%
ORB% 34.4% 36.1%
FT Rate 25.1% 27.8%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 44.1% 48.4%
Opp TOV% 17.4% 16.3%
DRB% 73.3% 72.2%
Opp FT Rate 17.7% 20.9%

Game Analysis

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