Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -5.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | DUKE -225 ARIZ +185 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARIZ +5 | 151 | Lost |
| Massey | DUKE -1.8 (-6.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.7 (-8.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Model 3 ML | ARIZ -0.0 (-5.0) | 151.9 (-0.9) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -2.5 (-7.5) | 147.8 (+3.2) | 41% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 28, 2025 | DUKE 100 – 93 ARIZ |
| Nov 23, 2024 | DUKE 69 – 55 ARIZ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | ARIZ |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 5-2 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Massey | 2.5 (#96) | 15.9 (#1) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.10 (#147) | 0.38 (#54) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.10 (#147) | 0.64 (#53) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | ARIZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 64.4% | 55.3% |
| 3PT% | 41.2% | 44.4% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 49.0 |
| OREB / G | 5.0 | 22.0 |
| AST / TO | 2.00 | 3.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 70.3% | 63.2% |
| TOV% | 13.1% | 9.2% |
| ORB% | 20.8% | 55.0% |
| FT Rate | 15.3% | 34.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 37.5% | 45.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 31.6% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 75.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 14.3% |
Game Analysis
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