Betting Lines
| Spread | MICH -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | MICH -140 UCSD +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MICH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MICH +3 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | MICH -3.6 (-0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.2 (-9.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MICH -3.4 (-0.4) | 138.7 (-5.7) | 64% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | MICH -3.8 (-0.8) | 139.0 (-6.0) | 68% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | MICH -2.8 (+0.2) | 138.9 (-5.9) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MICH -4.0 (-1.0) | 138.3 (-5.3) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MICH | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-10 | 30-5 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 18-2 |
| Home | 13-3 | 13-2 |
| Away | 7-3 | 12-2 |
| Neutral | 7-4 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.0 | 77.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 63.0 |
| Massey | 16.7 (#21) | 13.1 (#40) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.06 (#13) | 2.54 (#34) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.83 (#14) | 2.72 (#43) |
| RPI | 0.613 (#15) | 0.580 (#41) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MICH | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.4% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.69 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.5% | 55.4% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 13.5% |
| ORB% | 33.2% | 25.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.3% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 23.3% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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