Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | HOU -230 GONZ +195 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +5 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | HOU -3.7 (+1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.6 (+15.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -5.4 (-0.4) | 134.0 (+23.0) | 73% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | HOU -6.8 (-1.8) | 132.9 (+24.1) | 75% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | HOU -6.7 (-1.7) | 137.9 (+19.1) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -5.7 (-0.7) | 138.5 (+18.5) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | GONZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 35-5 | 26-9 |
| Conference | 19-1 | 14-4 |
| Home | 16-1 | 13-2 |
| Away | 10-0 | 7-2 |
| Neutral | 9-4 | 6-5 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 86.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 58.6 | 69.9 |
| Massey | 25.1 (#3) | 21.5 (#7) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.12 (#5) | 2.55 (#34) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.28 (#4) | 3.46 (#23) |
| RPI | 0.646 (#5) | 0.594 (#29) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | GONZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 50.1% |
| 3PT% | 39.6% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 38.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 2.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 56.0% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 13.4% |
| ORB% | 36.5% | 32.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.6% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.7% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.0% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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