Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | MSU -175 MISS +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +3 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | MSU -3.7 (-0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.6 (+0.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -3.4 (-0.4) | 142.1 (+0.9) | 63% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -2.7 (+0.3) | 143.5 (-0.5) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -2.6 (+0.4) | 143.4 (-0.4) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -3.5 (-0.5) | 141.6 (+1.4) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-7 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 10-8 |
| Home | 15-1 | 13-3 |
| Away | 8-2 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 7-4 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.7 | 77.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 71.7 |
| Massey | 19.7 (#12) | 15.9 (#25) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.59 (#7) | 3.41 (#9) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.60 (#7) | 4.27 (#9) |
| RPI | 0.635 (#8) | 0.616 (#14) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 40.1 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.46 | 1.57 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 12.9% |
| ORB% | 35.8% | 25.3% |
| FT Rate | 29.4% | 26.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.1% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 75.6% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 27.5% |
Game Analysis
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