Come on down and meet your maker. Come on down and take a stand. "The Stand" - The Alarm
(2) Michigan State Spartans
73 70
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(6) Ole Miss Rebels
State Farm Arena (Neutral) · March 28, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread MSU -3.5 Away covered
O/U 144.5 Under
Money MSU -175 / MISS +150
Model Predictions
Spread Total MSU win
Actual MSU +3 143 Won
Massey MSU -3.7 (-0.7)
Massey Totals 142.6 (+0.4)
Bradley-Terry 54%
Weighted B-T 58%
Baseline Plus ML MSU -3.3 (-0.3) 142.8 (+0.2) 65%
Model 4 ML MSU -3.8 (-0.8) 144.1 (-1.1) 75%
Model 3 ML MSU -3.3 (-0.3) 142.7 (+0.3) 67%
Baseline ML MSU -3.8 (-0.8) 142.6 (+0.4) 63%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings MSU MISS
Overall 30-7 24-12
Conference 17-3 10-8
Home 15-1 13-3
Away 8-2 5-6
Neutral 7-4 6-3
Last 5 4-1 3-2
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 77.7 77.2
Avg Pts Against 67.1 71.7
Massey 19.7 (#12) 15.9 (#25)
Bradley-Terry 3.59 (#7) 3.41 (#9)
W. Bradley-Terry 4.60 (#7) 4.27 (#9)
RPI 0.635 (#8) 0.616 (#14)
Shooting & Four Factors MSU MISS
FG% 46.0% 44.6%
3PT% 31.0% 34.8%
REB / G 40.1 33.1
OREB / G 12.1 9.1
AST / TO 1.46 1.57
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 51.1% 51.6%
TOV% 16.5% 12.9%
ORB% 35.8% 25.3%
FT Rate 29.4% 26.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 46.1% 50.3%
Opp TOV% 16.2% 20.3%
DRB% 75.6% 69.3%
Opp FT Rate 22.9% 27.5%

Game Analysis

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