Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -28.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Under |
| Money | HOU -100000 SIUE +4000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +38 | 118 | Won |
| Massey | HOU -27.9 (+10.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.8 (-5.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -19.4 (+18.6) | 129.1 (-11.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -17.8 (+20.2) | 127.0 (-9.0) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -21.1 (+16.9) | 129.1 (-11.1) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -21.3 (+16.7) | 129.9 (-11.9) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | SIUE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 35-5 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 19-1 | 13-7 |
| Home | 16-1 | 12-3 |
| Away | 10-0 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 9-4 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 58.6 | 68.3 |
| Massey | 24.8 (#3) | -3.1 (#219) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.05 (#6) | -0.43 (#206) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.21 (#5) | -0.81 (#228) |
| RPI | 0.645 (#6) | 0.490 (#193) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | SIUE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 39.8% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 14.6% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 36.1% | 31.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.9% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.7% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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