Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | PUR -260 MCN +215 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +14 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -7.7 (+6.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.1 (-2.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -5.9 (+8.1) | 139.9 (-1.9) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -5.8 (+8.2) | 135.4 (+2.6) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -6.2 (+7.8) | 137.9 (+0.1) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -5.7 (+8.3) | 140.6 (-2.6) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | MCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 28-7 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 19-1 |
| Home | 14-2 | 15-1 |
| Away | 5-6 | 10-2 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.2 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.4 | 64.5 |
| Massey | 17.4 (#17) | 9.6 (#61) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.86 (#21) | 1.69 (#60) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.64 (#18) | 1.76 (#68) |
| RPI | 0.623 (#10) | 0.598 (#23) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | MCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.9% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 38.3% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.54 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.1% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 35.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 21.5% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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