Betting Lines
| Spread | TA&M -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | TA&M -300 YALE +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TA&M win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TA&M +9 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | TA&M -8.4 (+0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.3 (+8.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TA&M -7.3 (+1.7) | 142.6 (+8.4) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TA&M -7.1 (+1.9) | 140.7 (+10.3) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TA&M -6.9 (+2.1) | 142.3 (+8.7) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TA&M -7.3 (+1.7) | 142.7 (+8.3) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TA&M | YALE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 22-8 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 13-1 |
| Home | 13-3 | 11-0 |
| Away | 5-5 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.6 | 80.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 70.9 |
| Massey | 16.7 (#22) | 8.2 (#70) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.25 (#11) | 1.16 (#80) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.98 (#11) | 1.35 (#86) |
| RPI | 0.614 (#14) | 0.584 (#35) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TA&M | YALE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 48.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 38.5% |
| REB / G | 41.2 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 16.2 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.60 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.5% | 54.8% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 14.3% |
| ORB% | 42.0% | 33.2% |
| FT Rate | 29.0% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.1% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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