Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -28.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | FLA -7500 NORF +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FLA +26 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | FLA -25.4 (+0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.5 (+12.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FLA -17.9 (+8.1) | 150.6 (+13.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FLA -18.2 (+7.8) | 152.4 (+11.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FLA -19.0 (+7.0) | 148.3 (+15.7) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FLA -19.3 (+6.7) | 152.4 (+11.6) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FLA | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 36-4 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 11-3 |
| Home | 15-1 | 11-1 |
| Away | 7-3 | 8-9 |
| Neutral | 14-0 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W12 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.8 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 71.8 |
| Massey | 24.6 (#4) | -0.8 (#172) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.74 (#1) | 0.20 (#151) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.06 (#1) | -0.01 (#166) |
| RPI | 0.647 (#4) | 0.549 (#80) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FLA | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 42.0 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 13.8 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.49 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.0% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 38.1% | 32.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 29.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.3% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 66.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
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