Betting Lines
| Spread | MD -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | MD -550 GCU +380 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MD +32 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | MD -14.9 (+17.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.2 (-20.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MD -12.6 (+19.4) | 148.5 (-18.5) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MD -10.4 (+21.6) | 148.6 (-18.6) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MD -12.5 (+19.5) | 149.3 (-19.3) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MD -12.1 (+19.9) | 148.6 (-18.6) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MD | GCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 13-3 |
| Home | 17-2 | 16-1 |
| Away | 5-5 | 5-4 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.1 | 77.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 70.0 |
| Massey | 20.4 (#9) | 5.5 (#93) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.83 (#20) | 1.10 (#83) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.98 (#10) | 1.22 (#89) |
| RPI | 0.594 (#27) | 0.547 (#83) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MD | GCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 37.2% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.8% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 32.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 32.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.0% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.2% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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