Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | CONN -260 OU +215 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +8 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -3.1 (+4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.4 (-23.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -3.6 (+4.4) | 142.2 (-16.2) | 64% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | CONN -4.3 (+3.7) | 141.6 (-15.6) | 72% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | CONN -4.2 (+3.8) | 143.2 (-17.2) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -4.6 (+3.4) | 142.2 (-16.2) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | OU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 6-12 |
| Home | 14-2 | 12-5 |
| Away | 7-4 | 2-7 |
| Neutral | 3-5 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 78.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.0 | 74.6 |
| Massey | 15.3 (#30) | 12.2 (#45) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.21 (#44) | 2.67 (#30) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.14 (#36) | 3.44 (#25) |
| RPI | 0.556 (#68) | 0.555 (#70) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | OU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.0% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 37.0% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.57 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.5% | 54.9% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 35.6% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.2% | 31.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.2% | 26.1% |
Game Analysis
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