Betting Lines
| Spread | MARQ -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | MARQ -200 UNM +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MARQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNM +9 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | MARQ -3.3 (-12.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.4 (-11.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MARQ -2.0 (-11.0) | 150.9 (-9.9) | 54% ✗ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | MARQ -3.3 (-12.3) | 149.1 (-8.1) | 57% ✗ |
| Model 3 ML | MARQ -2.0 (-11.0) | 147.6 (-6.6) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MARQ -2.4 (-11.4) | 146.7 (-5.7) | 56% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MARQ | UNM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 17-3 |
| Home | 14-3 | 15-1 |
| Away | 7-6 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 79.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 70.6 |
| Massey | 16.1 (#25) | 12.8 (#42) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.47 (#37) | 2.43 (#38) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.24 (#32) | 3.30 (#31) |
| RPI | 0.591 (#31) | 0.599 (#21) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MARQ | UNM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 39.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.49 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 13.5% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 18.8% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.5% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 74.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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