Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -18.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | MSU -2500 BRY +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +25 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | MSU -18.5 (+6.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.8 (-1.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -15.1 (+9.9) | 149.1 (-0.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -14.3 (+10.7) | 149.9 (-0.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -16.3 (+8.7) | 150.8 (-1.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -15.2 (+9.8) | 148.7 (+0.3) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | BRY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-7 | 23-12 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 14-2 |
| Home | 15-1 | 12-3 |
| Away | 8-2 | 10-7 |
| Neutral | 7-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.7 | 79.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 74.9 |
| Massey | 19.3 (#12) | 0.9 (#146) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.52 (#7) | 0.03 (#165) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.50 (#8) | 0.28 (#146) |
| RPI | 0.628 (#9) | 0.540 (#92) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | BRY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 40.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.46 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 35.3% | 34.2% |
| FT Rate | 29.6% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.1% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 75.4% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.