Then she opened up a book of poems and handed it to me, written by an Italian poet from the thirteenth century. "Tangled Up in Blue" - Bob Dylan
(1) Auburn Tigers
70 64
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(2) Michigan State Spartans
State Farm Arena (Neutral) · March 30, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread AUB -5.5 Home covered
O/U 147.5 Under
Money AUB -215 / MSU +180
Model Predictions
Spread Total AUB win
Actual AUB +6 134 Won
Massey AUB -6.4 (-0.4)
Massey Totals 147.1 (-13.1)
Bradley-Terry 75%
Weighted B-T 77%
Baseline Plus ML AUB -7.3 (-1.3) 144.0 (-10.0) 78%
Model 4 ML AUB -6.8 (-0.8) 144.0 (-10.0) 77%
Model 3 ML AUB -7.1 (-1.1) 141.8 (-7.8) 76%
Baseline ML AUB -6.9 (-0.9) 142.4 (-8.4) 81%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings AUB MSU
Overall 32-6 30-7
Conference 15-3 17-3
Home 13-2 15-1
Away 8-2 8-2
Neutral 11-2 7-4
Last 5 4-1 4-1
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 83.0 77.7
Avg Pts Against 69.4 67.1
Massey 26.0 (#2) 19.6 (#12)
Bradley-Terry 4.79 (#2) 3.68 (#7)
W. Bradley-Terry 5.85 (#2) 4.66 (#7)
RPI 0.680 (#1) 0.637 (#8)
Shooting & Four Factors AUB MSU
FG% 47.8% 46.1%
3PT% 36.3% 31.1%
REB / G 37.6 39.8
OREB / G 11.9 11.9
AST / TO 1.73 1.46
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 55.2% 51.2%
TOV% 13.6% 16.5%
ORB% 34.6% 35.5%
FT Rate 24.8% 29.7%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 46.0% 46.1%
Opp TOV% 17.3% 16.1%
DRB% 70.6% 75.4%
Opp FT Rate 28.2% 22.6%

Game Analysis

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