Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | AUB -215 MSU +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +6 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | AUB -6.4 (-0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.1 (-13.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -5.0 (+1.0) | 142.5 (-8.5) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -4.4 (+1.6) | 143.3 (-9.3) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -5.4 (+0.6) | 143.2 (-9.2) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -4.9 (+1.1) | 140.7 (-6.7) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AUB | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-6 | 30-7 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 17-3 |
| Home | 13-2 | 15-1 |
| Away | 8-2 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 11-2 | 7-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.0 | 77.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 67.1 |
| Massey | 26.0 (#2) | 19.6 (#12) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.79 (#2) | 3.68 (#7) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.85 (#2) | 4.66 (#7) |
| RPI | 0.680 (#1) | 0.637 (#8) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AUB | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 39.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.73 | 1.46 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.2% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 13.6% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 34.6% | 35.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 29.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.0% | 46.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 75.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.2% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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