Betting Lines
| Spread | SJU -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | SJU -315 ARK +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +9 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | SJU -5.1 (-14.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.4 (-2.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJU -5.5 (-14.5) | 145.2 (-4.2) | 66% ✗ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | SJU -6.8 (-15.8) | 145.0 (-4.0) | 69% ✗ |
| Model 3 ML | SJU -5.9 (-14.9) | 144.5 (-3.5) | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SJU -5.4 (-14.4) | 144.0 (-3.0) | 68% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJU | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-5 | 22-14 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 8-10 |
| Home | 19-0 | 13-4 |
| Away | 8-2 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.5 | 76.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.8 | 71.4 |
| Massey | 19.0 (#13) | 14.0 (#35) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.38 (#8) | 2.57 (#33) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.77 (#7) | 3.17 (#34) |
| RPI | 0.630 (#8) | 0.565 (#56) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJU | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 41.0 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 14.5 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.45 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 37.4% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 26.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.0% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.6% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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